Initialization of Tropical Cyclone Structure for Operational Application

The long-term goal of this project is to improve the prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis, structure and intensity changes through improved representation of 3-dimensional TC structure at the initial time. The accurate prediction of TC genesis, structure and intensity changes is critical to Navy missions and civilian activities in coastal areas. Significant gains have been made in the TC track prediction over the past decades. The genesis and intensity forecast, however, has shown very little progress during the same period. A main factor contributing to lack of skill in the prediction of TC genesis and intensity is the inadequate representation of initial axisymmetric and asymmetric TC dynamic and thermodynamic structures. TC initialization is a universal problem in nearly all current operational weather forecast systems, as indicated in a recent HFIP workshop. By conducting both idealized Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) and real-case TC forecast experiments, we intend to tackle the weaknesses faced in current operational weather forecast models.